Special Edition: Why the Push for Greenland Could Cost Us More Than We Think
Welcome to a special edition of Money Lessons! I’m Andy Temte and today is January 19, 2026—happy MLK Day!
I try not to wade into political conversations, opting instead to focus on the topics of lifelong learning and continuous improvement to influence and promote a brighter future for the humans that inhabit the planet. Today, I'm making an exception.
The US Government's push to acquire Greenland is, in my opinion, ill-advised and is creating unnecessary global tensions that are stacked on top of an already tenuous global order. To be the preeminent global power, we need global allies. While we may be able to "go it alone" in limited circumstances, we cannot shun our partners around the world. We are not invincible.
The "why" behind this statement is not because our military is weak. Our capabilities and especially our service members are world-class. Unfortunately, our financial strength does not match our military might.
As of January 2026, the US has over $38 trillion of outstanding debt it has issued in the form of Treasury Bills, Notes, and Bonds. For context, our outstanding debt is at or near all-time highs as measured as a proportion of the total goods and services produced annually in our economy (GDP).
Foreign Ownership of US Government Debt
What most people don't know is that foreign governments and investors own about one-third of our bonds. Let's suppose for a moment that tensions rise further and we get into an economic fight with Europe and other allies over Greenland.
One tool at their disposal to hurt the US would be to sell the US Government bonds they hold. Dumping bonds onto the open market would push bond prices down, increasing their yield. In addition, trust in the US would decline, forcing newly issued bonds to carry higher interest rates to attract buyers—pushing our interest burden even higher.
This "double whammy" would destabilize financial markets, making borrowing more costly not only for the US Government, but for businesses and individual consumers as market interest rates are pegged off of US Treasury rates. To keep Government funding intact, we would need to borrow more, just to cover ever-increasing interest costs.
We could raise income taxes to cover the difference, but we've shown over and over again as a society that we hate to be taxed, so the likelihood that our polarized Congress would have the intestinal fortitude to raise taxes is a non-starter.
Are Tariffs the Answer?
There are other ways to raise revenue, and tariffs have been floated as the silver bullet to all our problems. However, as another public service reminder, tariffs are a tax by a different name. When a tariff is applied, the importer of foreign goods pays the tax. In the short term, the importer may be able to squeeze concessions from the foreign exporter, but in the long run, the foreign exporter will look for other markets to sell into or simply pass the cost back to the importer.
So in the long run, either you pay the tax through price markups made by the importer, or the importer eats the tax, forcing profits down. In many cases, the importer is a small business whose owner is a real person just like you and me, so they're the ones that suffer. They'll likely lay off personnel to keep the business afloat. In the case of larger businesses that eat the tax of tariffs, their profits decline and they'll also likely lay off employees. Net business profits will decline, forcing stock prices down.
Oh, and one more thing about tariffs—capturing and realizing the expected revenue from any tariff strategy depends heavily on robust consumer and business spending. If that spending dries up, so does tariff revenue. Some would argue that spending on imported goods will be replaced by spending on domestic goods. While partially true, in many cases we lack the ability to produce certain products domestically, so suitable substitutes simply aren't available. In cases where we can produce the product here, the cost to do so is significantly higher than in other economies. The economics of comparative advantage is an underpinning and girder of our current economic world order.
I know that's a lot to digest, but unnecessary global instability caused by an unnecessary fight over who owns Greenland would likely increase interest rates, increase unemployment, drive down stock prices, and reduce trust in US Government debt. Businesses would likely invest less in capital expenditures and households would consume less.
Does the US Need Allies?
Oh, and back to our existing military prowess—it relies heavily on partnerships and alliances. We have bases scattered all over the world in allied territory. Our intelligence-sharing arrangements through Five Eyes and NATO provide capabilities we simply cannot replicate alone. What if our allies turn to adversaries in places where we've historically relied on strong tactical assistance and intelligence gathering? Clearly, our ability to maintain our global military dominance would be significantly challenged.
The bottom line is that we need our partners. Cooperation and collaboration are necessary in our modern, globally interconnected world.
So if Greenland is essential for US national security, what's the solution?
I understand the strategic appeal—access to rare earth minerals and Arctic shipping routes in a warming world, and thwarting Russian and Chinese advances in the region. These are legitimate interests. But there's a smarter path than confrontation.
First, by a 1951 agreement with Denmark, we already have all the military access we could ever want. We've built and abandoned many bases in Greenland. We can build more if we want to right now.
If Greenland is a natural resources play, then I recommend that partnership with the EU is the path to move along. We could work together to explore the island and share in whatever we find.
Destroying NATO and turning our European allies into enemies is not the answer.
There are a lot of nutty things going on in the world. Let's not add to the chaos.
Grace. Dignity. Compassion.
